As the cases begin to build up – but are still pretty low with limited community spread having been detected – now is a good time to start watching where and at what rate cases are in Australia. Below are a few quick graphs.
The situation at 71 cases
These data are harvested from the excellent public-facing and online National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System – or NNDSS. I have been using them in recent years for influenza virus and more recently for measles virus last year.
My only criticisms of the NNDSS data (I’d have to have one wouldn’t I?) are that they are a bit late. For example, in Australia, we’re officially up to 80 (now 81!) cases today. Also, we can’t get daily data from the NNDSS site. I really wish we could so I could make nicer graphs. But such is life.
Confirmed COVID-19: what’s in a case?
As of the 05MAR2020, confirmation in Australia (see definition in eth image below) requires detection of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). As it should.
In the graph below we can see the confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases by month for Australia. I’ve added in eth latest numbers but I can’t add age or sex details until NNDSS updates those. so there will be a bit of disconnect in order to see the latest totals.
States (and territories) and rates
New South Wales has so far hosted most of Australia’s COVID-19 cases and is experiencing some community transmission not knowingly linked to travellers. So far case numbers are relatively low but even while preparing this blog today, cases went up a little.
Sex, age and SARS-CoV-2
So far cases may be a bit over-represented among older males, but they are mostly found among adults between 20 to 65 years of age in Australia. Case totals still include a lot of travellers at this stage.
Data here support what we have repeatedly seen from China; illnesses sufficient to put children on the radar for testing are uncommon. Whether children with mild illness are being missed and whether they could be a source of transmission remain unclear issues right now.
So here is the start of things. We have no exact idea what the speed of spread will be from here on out, but with community transmission picking up in News South Wales at least, here is a decent approximate starting pint.